During this DiSC session, experts from NATO, RUSI, Telespazio Germany, and Technische Universität Chemnitz examined how rapidly changing geopolitics and adversarial threats are redefining space, and the impact they will have on the space industry, space governance, and global economies.

NATO Works Toward Deterring Space Threats
Helle opened the discussion by asking Daniel Hilgert, NATO’s Senior Space Coordinator, how space capabilities are currently helping to stabilize and deter threats in NATO territories. Hilgert explained that he has observed a trend among global militaries toward increased reliance on commercial satellite services, which he views positively in terms of deterrence but notes that it also poses challenges.

“It creates a lot of vulnerabilities, especially when it comes to SATCOM and space-based ISR,” explained Hilgert. “We’ve seen that a lot of nations are heavily relying on single providers, though the commercial market is so diverse and vibrant. This is something that we really need to think about when it comes to threats in the space environment.”

According to Hilgert, NATO is launching numerous initiatives to address these vulnerabilities and to deter geopolitical threats.

“We’re developing a marketplace for space services, which is very important to diversifying our [SATCOM] sources and becoming more resilient,” said Hilgert. “We’re also working on threat sharing and exploring how we can unclassify, or downclassify, information that we can share with commercial partners, but also incentivize commercial partners to share information with us.”

Hilgert said NATO is also developing a new program, THOR, to address how to execute offensive counterspace operations and capabilities.

“THOR is really about trying to develop playbooks to see what actions we would take for X, Y, and Z scenarios, and what kind of capabilities we would need to procure to execute those playbooks,” said Hilgert. “[THOR] is going to be really important. It will not be a one-time effort; we will do this continuously because we see how Russia and China are learning how we operate, are adapting themselves, and updating their technology accordingly. We need to update ourselves as well.”

Top Geopolitical Threats in Space
Helle delved deeper into the space threat topic and asked the panelists which, from their perspectives, are the most concerning counterspace events or geopolitical behaviors that have recently occurred or may occur in the future. Dr. habil. Antje Nötzold, Research Associate and Lecturer at Technische Universität Chemnitz, has certain capability advancements coming out of China at the top of her list.

“When we look at space and counterspace activities, I’m not just worried about all the dog fighting we see between Chinese and U.S. satellites, which are now becoming real maneuvers and operations,” said Dr. Nötzold. “What [concerns me the most] was what happened in July, when the Chinese managed to have a successful docking of satellites in geostationary orbit and refueled a satellite. Why [does this concern me the most]? Because it shows that China is ahead of the United States. It brings more ambiguity to the whole dynamic, as we don’t know much about China’s intentions. I would say it also changes a lot of the dynamics for future in-orbit service operations.”

For Professor Trevor Taylor, Director of the Defence, Industries and Society Programme at RUSI, avoiding kinetic combat in the space domain to maintain everyday life on Earth is one of his top concerns.

“Much of our social and commercial life depends on assets that are in space,” said Professor Taylor. “After learning about the Kessler effect, if combat occurs in space, it’s going to be very difficult to control. If two parties are at war, such control becomes very difficult. I would like to see more effort to keep the combat piece out [of space].”

Dr. Ivan Janes, Chief Systems and Products Officer at Telespazio Germany, cited SATCOM security as his primary concern. For Dr. Janes, security across all segments of the SATCOM triad must be strengthened to maintain the critical infrastructure services people depend on.

“Satellite services are embedded in the critical infrastructure services on Earth,” Dr. Janes said. “The energy, military, healthcare, and financial sectors depend on the availability of space services. We have a space, ground, and link segment for all space services. All those layers are only as strong as their weakest link. We must make sure that all the links are hardened to the level that we need.”

Hilgert believes that world governments must heavily invest in bolstering resilience measures in the space domain and be proactive by preparing for any type of crisis that may affect space services on Earth.

“I think the biggest threat is not actually in space, but on this planet,” said Hilgert. ”[Space domain threats] threaten our economies, our societies, and our militaries. We really need to be more proactive. I think we are all pioneers in this respect, because, for NATO, space is a new operational domain. We can really try to get things right, be proactive, and prepare for a conflict before it happens. [We must] invest in [SATCOM] resilience for our civilian infrastructure.”

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During one session at this year’s AFA conference, “Partnering to Win in the Space Fight,” military officials from the U.S. and its allies assembled to discuss the current state of their military coalitions in space, the joint capabilities they have leveraged to gain dominance in the domain, as well as the work that is still left to be done in order to hold a strong deterrent position over space adversaries. Session speakers included:

• Space Systems Command’s Lt. Gen. Michael Guetlein,
• Royal Canadian Air Force’s Lt. Gen. E.J. Kenny,
• Australian’s Air & Space Attaché’s Air Commadore Angus Porter
• RAF Air and Space Commander Air Marshal Harvey Smyth

According to Air Commodore Porter, a century of joint warfighting as allies have proven that the four nations are capable of protecting any domain that must be defended from adversarial aggression. “The last 100 years have really demonstrated to us the value of working closely with partners,” said Porter. “Particularly with capabilities…and [conducting] warfighting training exercises together, we feel like we’ve been in the environment together before we arrive.”

But the idea of space as a warfighting environment poses a new challenge that the allied nations must come together to solve. As session moderator Col. Charles Galbreath (Ret.) put it, “The space domain is more congested, contested, and competitive than ever. The challenges and threats facing the United States and our allies are growing at an alarming rate.”

But as the session unfolded, it was clear that the four space leaders held the conviction that through their “collaboration, cooperation, and coalition” as spacefaring nations, they indeed will be able to partner and win in the domain.

Opening an international space dialogue
For Air Marshal Smyth, he attributes the standing up of the U.S. Space Force and Space Command as a hefty contributing factor to the U.K. opening a formal discussion around their own military space operations. “I think it’s probably fair to say that had we not seen the U.S. Space Force and a U.S. Space Command, I’m not confident that I could have landed the argument across the government to stand up a U.K. Space Command,” he said.

He went on to acknowledge that at this point in military history, having his nation prioritize space as a warfighting domain is critical as the pace of space threats are picking up speed as well as continuously manifesting themselves in different ways. “Those two things have really aligned us in the U.K. to accelerate our approach,” Air Marshal Smyth explained. “It’s also fair to say that we would not have been able to accelerate that approach had it not have been for the dialogue with the U.S. We’ve been very grateful for that clear partnership of bilateral and multilateral…space ops initiatives.”

But the gratitude of these multilateral partnerships is not just directed towards the U.S. from its allies. According to Lt. Gen. Guetlein, the conflict in Ukraine has served as a reminder to him of the critical importance of international partnerships in the space domain. “I would say going into Ukraine, we probably were not thinking about coalitions as much as we possibly should,” he said. “I will tell you though, now that we’re fully ingrained in that conflict, it all becomes about coalitions. And what we do know going forward, especially in the space domain, is that we can’t do it alone.”

He went on to say that the U.S. must continue to leverage allied partnerships in order to stay one step ahead of its adversaries. “If I look at what is the U.S.’ competitive advantage, it’s our partnerships,” he explained.

As it pertains to space, the competitive advantage of allied partnerships comes in many forms. For Lt. Gen. Kenny, allied coalitions represent a monumental opportunity to bring together and share joint space capabilities.

“We need to work together as allies and partners,” he said. “From a Canadian perspective, one of the things that we’re focused on is what are some of the niche capabilities? What are some of the gaps that we can help fulfill, so that we’re not duplicating efforts, and that we’re building a more resilient and proliferated orbit and capability that can allow us to conduct operations worldwide, as allies and partners?”

Tackling the space threat together
For Lt. Gen. Guetlein, the founding of the Space Force has created many different avenues for tackling the space threat alongside U.S. allies. “[Space] is not new for the U.S.,” he said. “What is new for the U.S. is…we are actually talking about the threat [with allies] at levels that I was never allowed to talk about my entire career, and we’re doing it openly in the public…[The dialogue] is no longer ‘what can you give me.’ It is ‘what can we each provide, in a certain synergistic effect to get after the space threat.’”

Air Marshal Smyth agreed with Lt. Gen. Guetlein by saying that the open dialogue between the allied nations has benefited an international, integrated deterrence in the space domain. “We’ve seen the doors open from the U.S.,” he explained. “We’re delivering more together and building a coalition so that a potential adversary doesn’t see the world through the lens of ‘it’s us versus another country’…But they see it as ‘us versus everyone else.’ That in itself is a very deterrent position to be in.”

Lt. Gen. Guetlein agreed that the more aligned the U.S. and her allies are on the topics of space values, responsible behavior in the domain, as well as deterrence, it sends a very strong signal to the coalition’s adversaries. “Our competitors are not operating responsibly nor safely in space,” he explained. “But we are. We’ve got to continue to keep sending that signal…They may be able to take on one of us at a time, but they cannot take on all of us at once.”

To learn more about this year’s Air, Space, & Cyber Conference, click HERE.

The post “Delivering More Together” – U.S. and Allied Space Leaders Highlight Importance of Joint Coalitions at AFA 2023 appeared first on SES Space and Defense.